At 2347 UTC on November 3, Australia’s Space Weather Services issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning: “Expect Unsettled to Active conditions with periods of Minor Storm levels in the Australian region for the next UT day, 4 November, if a small coronal hole in the Southern hemisphere becomes geoeffective.”
But as of November 3, the prediction from NOAA/USAF for planetary A index for November 4 and 5 is only 10 and 8.
Over the past reporting week (October 27 through November 2) we saw two days with no sunspots, October 28 and November 2. Prior to the past week, in recent memory only October 1 had no sunspots either. Average daily sunspot number for the week was 9.1, down from 18.7 over the previous seven days.
Average daily solar flux rose, but only slightly from 76.9 to 77.5.
Geomagnetic indicators were slightly lower, with average daily planetary A index declining from 20.3 to 18.1, and mid-latitude A index from 16.7 to 13.4.
Predicted solar flux is 78 on November 4-7, 75 on November 8-11, then 80, 78 and 75 on November 12-14, 73 on November 15-16, 78 on November 17-18, 77 and 75 on November 19-20, 78 on November 21-22, 80 on November 23-25, 78 on November 26, 80 on November 27-29, 78 on November 30, 82 on December 1-3, 80 on December 4-5, 78 on December 6-7, and 80 on December 8-9.
Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on November 4-5, 5 on November 6-10, then 10, 15, 18, 10 and 8 on November 11-15, 5 on November 16-18, then 8, 15, 54, 42 and 24 on November 19-23, then 18, 22, 18, 15 and 12 on November 24-28, then 8 on November 29 through December 1, then 5 and 8 on December 2-3, and 5 on December 4-7.
Looking at our three-month moving average of sunspot numbers, the average sunspot value for August 1 through October 31 was 39. Over the same three-month period in 2015 the average was 64.5, and in 2014 it was 108.4.
Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent us this on October 3.
“Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 4-November 30, 2016
Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on November 7-8
Mostly quiet on November 4, (9-10), 15-18, 29-30
Quiet to unsettled on November 5-6, 11, 14, 19, 27-28
Quiet to active on November 12-13, 20, 24
Active to disturbed on November 21-23, 25-26
Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected:
on November 5-6, 12-13, 20-26
– Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.”
Richard Dillman, W6AWO, of Point Reyes Station, California saw the reference to the ARRL National Parks on the Air activity by N8II in last week’s bulletin, and wrote:
“I hope/assume you have bagged K6KPH, one of the only permanent stations in a national park (Point Reyes National Seashore). With separate 1.5 kW transmitters and gain antennas for each frequency, we get out pretty well – propagation permitting! We’re on the air each Saturday and Sunday from 1200 to about 1700 Pacific time.”
Indeed, I see their weekly Saturday schedule listed under Events on the NPOTA web site: https://npota.arrl.org/nps-events.php.
Jimmy Mahuron, K9JWJ, submitted this reference to construction of a VLF receiver for detecting Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances: https://www.aavso.org/improved-gyrator-tuned-vlf-receiver.
Regular contributor David Moore sent this, about recent aurora: https://shar.es/1I0Ivj
Richard Ferry, K2KA of Westford, Massachusetts sent this a week ago, just after I submitted last week’s bulletin to Newington, on October 28:
“Six meters has been pretty quiet here with a brief Es opening on October 25 at 1754 Z. Worked 5 stations in GA and one AL Es. There was a brief auroral opening on the October 26 around 2200 Z. I called CQ while beaming to the north, but no takers.”
Ran across this from Discover Magazine about solar seismology: http://bit.ly/2f7cvGU
Jeff, N8II,reports again this week from West Virginia, this time about last week’s CQ World-Wide SSB DX Contest…
“Starting Monday before the contest, the K index was 4 or higher almost all week and storm levels moderate or stronger. Despite this, paths from east through south to west were not that bad up to 15 meters. I was able to work JE1 in Japan and JA1NUT on 20 meter CW around 2220Z and small portable/mobile stations from National Parks were mostly near normal signal levels; very workable. Thursday seemed to be the worst day and Friday the second worst.
“The forecast for the CQ WW DX contest was for disturbed conditions, and boy did we get that and more! A week before the CQWW last Sunday. 15 meters was wide open to every corner of Europe at 1330Z, but absolutely no northern EU or even zone 16 worked in the contest. The zones missed on all bands were 18 (heard RW0A, Russia on 40), 22, 23, 26, 27, 28, 29 (nothing heard from Australia on 20 meter long path), 32 (only heard ZM1A, New Zealand calling a station), 34, and 37. It was my worst-ever missed list even with a serious effort. My best/biggest surprise DX QSO was VR2, Hong Kong. on 40 meters over the south magnetic pole after sunrise.
“The other big surprise was hearing Europeans on 10 meters from 1519-1553Z on Sunday. I managed to work Spain, Portugal, France, and the Balearic Islands. I also worked the Canary Islands, Morocco, South Africa, the Cape Verde Islands, Senegal, Ceuta, and Ascension Island. Ten never seemed to open west farther than Mexico
“I worked Queensland, Australia 3 times around 2100 Z on 15 meters. Even 20 never opened well to northern Europe; Poland and Belarus had deep polar flutter on 20 meters on Sunday morning, but I made the QSOs.
“The low bands were pretty disaster areas with high absorption. Everything past zone 33 in NW Africa was weak on 40 both Saturday and Sunday evenings. I did work a VK4, Australia, on both 40 and 75 meters, and T32AZ on Christmas Island (south of Hawaii) 75 meters. There were thousands of Russians active. but I worked none at all in my 24 hours of operating except RW0CN on 20 meters around 2200 Z Saturday on the Kamchatka peninsula near Alaska! Alaska was worked around 2000 Z on 20 meters only. UP2L, a big station in Kazakhstan, saved me from missing zone 17 on 20 meters around 1230 Z Sunday.
“There were some pluses against the obvious minuses. Sporadic E opened 10 meters to almost all of the Caribbean early Saturday morning with S9+ signals. At the same time, there seemed to be Es from central to western Europe on 15 (stations running at very high rates). There was also strong auroral Es Saturday evening to the north on 20/40 with booming VE2s and 3s, but no big over-the-pole openings. I did work about 6-8 Japanese on 20 with weak signals then, as well as zone 19. It seemed like Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands was in a sweet spot for propagation and they were well represented with activity. Propagation to the south did seem enhanced at times, especially on 10 meters. From my perspective, the most under represented country was New Zealand and the biggest turnout was Chile with an explosion of new calls on 10 and 15 meters on Sunday afternoon and evening. The Canary Islands operators were also out in big numbers. Thank goodness there were many Spanish stations active, but turnout from France and Italy did not seem quite up to normal.
“Most DX operators did a very good job under challenging conditions; 20 was absolutely jammed with southern Europeans most of Sunday, as was 40 meters at the start. I missed many northern/eastern European countries that I normally get on 20 and 15 meters. On 20, I worked only one station each from Denmark, Sweden, and Norway, and two from Finland. I heard nothing from the Aland Islands. Many Caribbean/Central America/South America stations were worked on all 3 higher bands as there was less to work in Europe, and many other North American stations were looking south.”
In closing, the ARRL CW Sweepstakes is this weekend. See http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes .
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
Sunspot numbers for October 27 through November 2 were 12, 0, 16, 12, 12, 12, and 0, with a mean of 9.1. 10.7 cm flux was 78.9, 79.2, 79.1, 76.2, 76.7, 76.5, and 76, with a mean of 77.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 28, 17, 27, 18, 11, 11, and 15, with a mean of 18.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 18, 16, 18, 13, 8, 9, and 12, with a mean of 13.4.